Risk-Based Engineering - The New Paradigm

Frederic G. Snider, RPG and Michelle B. Snider, PhD

Course Outline

The material presented in this course provides an overview of the formal risk assessment process. The basic steps are described and explained by example so that the student can understand each step of the process and how each following step builds upon the previous step. The student will become familiar with the terms used during risk assessment discussions and the different ways we apply our judgment to determine risk.

• Introduction
• Definitions of key terms
• Components of the Risk-Based Approach
• Potential Failure Mode Analysis
  • The Initiator
  • Failure Progression
  • The Ultimate Failure
• Event Trees
• Probabilistic Analysis
  • Assigning Probabilities
  • Deterministic Approach
  • Subjective Probabilities
  • Expert Elicitation
  • Adverse and Favorable Factors
  • The Workshop
• Potential Failure Mode AnalysisMonte Carlo Simulations
• Reading the Graph
• Consequence Evaluatio
• Summary of the Risk Assessment Steps
• Advanced Topics
  • Load Frequency Analysis
  • Fragility Curves
  • What is an Acceptable Risk?
• Conclusion
• References Cited

The course includes a multiple-choice quiz at the end, which is designed to enhance the understanding of the course materials.

Learning Objectives

The learning objectives for this course are to:

• Become familiar with the terminology and language of risk;
• Understand the basic concepts in risk-based decision making;
• Follow the key steps that comprise the formal risk assessment process;
• Develop a sense of the benefits and pitfalls of the formal process;
• Understand the implications of basing engineering and business decisions solely on risk;
• Address the trade-offs that must be made when resources are limited;
• Learn new concepts such as Fragility Curves and Load Frequency Charts;
• Explore mind-expanding issues and concepts such as “acceptable risk”; and
• Form a good basis for more advanced study if desired or necessary.

Intended Audience

This course is intended for all students, engineers, scientists, architects, engineering managers, project managers, and corporate leaders who are interested in the risk assessment process and how it may apply to how you do your job, your responsibilities, and your accountabilities. Since risk-based engineering principles apply to many different fields, including heath care, elder care, homeland security and many other parts of our lives, this course can be of value to anyone.

Benefit to Attendees

All engineers, architects, and related fields can benefit from a better understanding of the principles and methodologies that are part of risk-based decision making and its widespread application to all of our daily lives, where every day we have to make decisions based on our best guess of what the future holds.

Course Introduction

Although the concept of risk assessment for large engineering projects has been around for decades, it has only recently been formalized and found its way into the literature, the topic of sessions at technical conferences and appeared within the regulatory environment. As financial resources become more scarce, owners of many engineering projects, including roads and bridges, planes and trains, dams and levees, power plants, structures in seismically active areas, industrial facilities and even office buildings susceptible to terrorist attacks have to decide where best to spend repair, rehabilitation, retrofit and upgrading dollars.

The purpose of the formal risk assessment process is to best define where limited repair, rehabilitation or upgrade dollars should be spent to get the best “bang for the buck”. Bang for the buck could translate into increased reliability, lower operation and maintenance costs, or lowered risk of loss of human life.

As time passes, the principles and methodologies described here will trickle into more and more engineering fields, and will likely not only be used to evaluate risks associated with existing components and structures, but also be used more up-front, during the design of new structures and components.

At the same time, beyond large engineering projects, risk-based decision making is becoming more and more prevalent in health care, elder care, homeland security, military campaigns, infrastructure, pharmaceuticals, traffic management, and many other fields that touch all of our lives. As such, familiarity with the type of thinking and methodologies that form the basis of the risk-based decision process should be a requirement for every responsible adult.

Course Content

In this lesson, you are required to download and study the following course content:

Risk-Based Engineering - The New Paradigm

Please click on the above underlined hypertext to view, download or print the document for your study.

Course Summary

The material presented in this course provides an overview of the formalized risk assessment process. Its purpose is to best define where limited repair, rehabilitation or upgrade dollars should be spent to get the best “bang for the buck”. Bang for the buck could translate into increased reliability, lower operation and maintenance costs, or lowered risk of loss of human life. Every situation is different.

As time passes, the principles and methodologies described here will trickle into more and more engineering fields, and will likely not only be used to evaluate risks associated with existing components and structures, but also be used more up-front, during the design of new structures.

Quiz

Once you finish studying the above course content, you need to take a quiz to obtain the PDH credits.

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DISCLAIMER: The materials contained in the online course are not intended as a representation or warranty on the part of PDH Center or any other person/organization named herein. The materials are for general information only. They are not a substitute for competent professional advice. Application of this information to a specific project should be reviewed by a registered architect and/or professional engineer/surveyor. Anyone making use of the information set forth herein does so at their own risk and assumes any and all resulting liability arising therefrom.

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